The entire world is currently facing the severe consequences of rising temperatures. If these adverse effects intensify further, it is estimated that global temperatures will rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius. This figure has become a cause of concern at every climate summit. Extensive efforts are underway to limit the global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
If temperatures remain within this limit, the extreme consequences of climate change can be avoided globally. This was also stipulated in the 2015 Paris Agreement. If the temperature rise exceeds this threshold, the entire world—particularly South Asian countries like India and island nations like Vanuatu—will face catastrophic conditions.
2024: The Year We Crossed the Threshold
In 2024, the world crossed that predetermined temperature limit. The average global temperature rise was 1.55 degrees Celsius. That year, out of 365 days, 314 days witnessed extreme climate events such as heatwaves, floods, cyclones, and droughts recorded across India. Scientists have documented that not just for one year, but for several decades, global temperatures have been exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark.
It is undeniable that global temperatures will certainly rise in the coming days. The question is: What will happen to India if the world permanently crosses this temperature threshold?
Devastating Impact on India
In 2024, extreme climate events were recorded in India on nearly 88 percent of all days. In 2023, summer arrived almost 3 weeks earlier than usual.
Rising Death Toll
By the year 2100, heat-related deaths in India are projected to increase 25-fold. This means approximately 1.5 million deaths annually due to such adverse conditions.
Economic Losses
Surveys have revealed that for every 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature, the daily earnings of laundry workers, street food vendors, and construction laborers decrease by 40 percent.
Monsoon Disruption and Agricultural Crisis
India’s food and water systems are dependent on monsoon rainfall. If global temperatures reach 1.5 degrees Celsius, the monsoon and associated rainfall will undergo significant changes.
According to research published in ‘PLOS Climate’ in November 2025, since 1951, rainfall in the Indo-Gangetic Plain has been decreasing by 0.5 to 1.5 millimeters per day every decade. However, the bigger threat from a 1.5-degree temperature rise is not reduced rainfall, but erratic rainfall patterns.
Under these circumstances:
- The Indian summer monsoon will arrive 7 days earlier
- Its pattern will become unpredictable
- Rainfall distribution will become uneven across regions
- Some areas will face severe floods, destroying homes and farmlands with significant loss of life and property
- Other regions will experience severe drought without any rain
Threat to Staple Food Production
Hundreds of millions of Indians depend on two primary food sources—rice and wheat. If global temperatures reach 1.5 degrees, both these crops will be severely affected.
Research shows that by 2100:
- Wheat production will decrease by 6 to 25 percent
- Rice yield from irrigated paddy fields will decrease by 7 percent by 2050
- Rice yield will further decrease by 10 percent by 2080
Himalayan Glacier Meltdown
Furthermore, rising temperatures will cause rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers. Naturally, the melting of Himalayan ice provides water to the Ganga, Yamuna, Brahmaputra, and Indus rivers. Hundreds of millions of people use this water for:
- Drinking purposes
- Agricultural irrigation
- Hydroelectric power generation
Researchers warn that if the ice melts rapidly and depletes completely, these rivers will eventually dry up and disappear within a few years.
Rising Sea Levels
Additionally, glacier melting will also cause sea levels to rise. When this happens:
- Coastal areas will be submerged
- Hundreds of millions of people will become homeless
